The long-term mechanism of the property market continues to improve the low commodity price slightly decline
On November 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the development of national real estate development investment and sales from January to October.
Overall, during the ten years of Silver 10 this year, the sales area did not expect, and the sales area has been low in six years. In the supply, the growth of the real estate development investment growth continues to slow, and the growth rate has been narrowed for eight consecutive months. In October, the sales area of ??commercial housing has been shown in six years. From January to October this year, the sales area of ??commercial housing is 1430.41 million square meters, the year-on-year increase is 1,4718.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth%.
Regardless of the sales area of ??the commercial housing, it is narrowed in than September than January-September.
In October month, the sales area of ??commercial housing is 12.709 million square meters, and the decrease in the ring is%, which is a year-on-year. Zhongyuan Real Estate Statistics show that in October This year, the sales area of ??commercial housing is the lowest in the last six years, which can be said that the market has been more obvious in the market.
In this regard, Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Home Affairs Institute, said to the Chinese Business Daily reporters that the heat in the real estate market in October is expected.
The current real estate market has been transferred from the seller to the buyer’s market, and the changes in the market mentality have driven a decline in the heat of the real estate market. In the objective factors, the strict control of mortgage policies leads to the sharp decline in market demand, especially in some city’s second-hand housing loans, the problem of long lending cycle, causing the transaction cycle to be constantly distinguished, the market sentiment has caused a larger influence. ZHANG DAV, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, in October, the sales data of commercial housing in October, the same is lowered, one is due to real estate credit tightening, only three quarter mortgage decreased by 510 billion yuan; Second, the real estate regulation policy is strict, market There is a continuous weakness; the third is due to the high sales base in the same period last year. Zhuge Finding the Data Research Center analyst Wang Xiaoyu said to the Chinese Business Daily reporter that in October is the traditional sales season of the property market, this year, the property market is not good in October, and the other side is affected by the National Day holiday residents, the demand will enter the market; On the other hand, the policy of substantive favorable purchasers has not yet been introduced, and the residents’ homes are looking forward and delay the pace of entering the market. Chen Wenjing, deputy director of the University of China, also stated that China Business Daily reporters said that the sales area and amount growth rate of commercial housing have been reduced in three consecutive months, and October has further expanded in September, and the market continues low temperature. Outlook the future, the market adjustment pressure is still in, superimposing the high-grade of the same period last year, the total growth rate of commercial housing sales in the national commercial housing will further slow down, and the sales area and amount of commercial housing in the single-month commercial housing will continue to decline.
Real estate development investment growth has narrowed data for eight consecutive months, from January to October, the new construction area of ??houses is 166.36 million square meters, downloaded year-on-year, further expanded. Among them, the new starting area of ??the single month in October decreased year-on-year, which was a year-on decline in 7 months.
In terms of development investment, January-October, the national real estate development investment of 12493.4 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase%, and the growth rate narrowed from January-September, and has emerged for 8 consecutive months.
Chen Wenjing said that in the supply end, it is affected by the two-concentrated policy and the second half of the land market in the second half of the city, January-October, the national land market transaction volume continued to decline. This dragged down the new start-up speed of the national house, and the pressure on the recent household funds continued to increase, and the new construction area of ??the house was expanded from January to October. Pan Hao, senior analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said that the growth rate of new construction area of ??houses is continuous and downgraded is the main cause of growth in the growth rate of real estate development investment.
He further introduced the road, and the investment in household investment continued to decline, due to the exposure of some housing enterprises, financial institutions were more cautious about financing needs of housing and enterprises; on the other hand, due to the decrease in house sales. Wang Xiaoyu also mentioned that the increase in investment growth in housing and enterprises lies in the transformation of land supply mode this year. The growth rate of new construction area of ??housing and enterprises has been significantly weakened, which has been significantly weakened. .
However, the growth rate of completion is still supported by the development of investment growth rates.
Looking forward to the future, Chen Wenjing believes that the recent market financing environment has improved, but under the context of local pre-sale fund supervision, the pressure of housing and enterprises has increased, superimposed last year, the high-grade of the same period last year, the new construction area and development investment The decline in one month or will continue. Yan Yuejin, Director of Study Center, Zhugu Center, also said that real estate development investment enters the gentle interval from overheating intervals, follow-up to prevent hierarchy, which is less than 5%.